Curtis WestbayEmpirical bucketing, arbitrary decisions
âBucketingâ students with the academic index
Every school has its own methods for assessing a studentâs academic preparedness and attempts to quantify a studentâs academic achievement via a proprietary (and internal) quantitative measure called the academic index. It goes like this. Maybe a college first converts every studentâs GPA to a standard scale (the 4.0 unweighted GPA, most likely, as it is the commonest scale used by high schools). From there, the studentâs GPA will be considered in the context of their high school curriculum. In other words, how challenging was it for the student to achieve what they achieved? Standardized tests also factor into the equationâparticularly the SAT or ACT, which are unified according to a percentile concordance table. If another exam is considered or recommended for admission (e.g. AP exam scores), they may factor into the index as well, either as a plus factor (added points) or into the strength of curriculum. English proficiency exam scores (i.e. ToEFL, IELTS) may factor into the academic index for international students, or they may be considered separately. In some cases, a low ToEFL score may not factor into the academic index but may on its own disqualify a student from contention for admission.
Every applicant gets a score. Then, theyâre all placed into âbucketsâ with students who scored similarly.
Anticipating yield based on historic trends
Now, Iâm only talking about selective universities. For less selective universities, the academic index may be the entirety of the application review. Less selective universities use a âthresholdâ admission approach, and students whose academic indices surpass the threshold are automatically accepted, those below are automatically denied. For the selective universities which use a âholisticâ admission approach, âbucketingâ is the first step. Then, based on historical data about acceptance (the number of students admitted within a range) and yield (the number of accepted students who ultimately choose to attend), admission offices set anticipated targets for students within these âbuckets.â A âbucketâ with a high academic index range may have a higher acceptance rate and a lower yield rate, while a lower index âbucketâ has a historically low acceptance rate and a high yield. In any event, colleges have thousands and thousands of data points to analyze when trying to construct an incoming class, and the targets for students within a certain range of academic achievement are based on these data.
Pressed for time, the decisions about acceptance will become somewhat arbitrary
So, youâve been âbucketedââwhat comes next? The qualitative review of the college application forms the basis of the decisions that will be made: essays, letters of recommendation, activities, portfolios, interviews. Thereâs no standard way of assessing these factors (though college admission departments do have standard operating procedures for assessing qualitative factors, some degree of subjectivity must be introduced into the process). We know what makes essays, letters, activities, portfolios, and interviews strong, but thereâs no way to ensure that an individual application reader will view your studentâs materials as stronger than another studentâs. Especially when colleges have thousands of applicants, itâs not possible for application readers to sit and labor over every decision. You should understand the nature of college admission in this wayâ âhope for the best, prepare for the worst.â Over the next two months, our blog series will culminate for the school year with sentiments from this mantra in equal measureâfirst, with âPessimism Monthâ, then with âOptimism Monthâ.