Curtis WestbayThe heuristic chancing process
In our College Admission department, we engage in the practice of heuristic chancing. Given three data points— unweighted cumulative GPA from G9-G11, highest SAT score from a single administration, and highest ToEFL score from a single administration— we try to predict the likelihood of admission for students at the schools that interest them. Over time, we can look at past examples of students who have applied to top universities, and in an imprecise exercise, we can estimate the likelihood of admission in rough terms. The output that we provide to students, i.e. score targets, is based on this experience.
These three factors each accord to their own scale: unweighted GPA has a maximal value of 4.0; SAT, a maximal value of 1600; and ToEFL, a maximal value of 120. We can consolidate these values, roughly, by making each max out at 1600 (ergo, a 4.0 GPA could be multiplied by 400 to yield a GPA1600 score of 1600). Then, divided by 48, and we can approach our own academic index value, which affords equal weight to each of these three factors. Alternatively, we can give different weight to each of the three data points (e.g. 40% weight on the GPA, 30% on the SAT, 20% on the ToEFL), and, with several different compositions of weight, take the average of several different academic indices. Fortunately, several iterations of this imprecise practice yield about the same result. Having looked at the data from all of the graduates of BASIS International Schools, China, there is a shockingly strong correlation between the consolidated values of these three data points and a student's top college result.
And yet, there are more than three factors in the college admission process. To make estimates on these three quantitative data alone ignores the qualitative factors— essays, activities, letters of recommendation, interviews. People review the college application, not machines. A student could hit all of the quantitative targets that we provide, but if their activities underwhelm, they may be rejected. A student could fall short of every target that a counselor sets for them, apply to a selective college even against the advice of their counselor, and get accepted. This imprecise process is meant to shape the student's college list, to contain options that are optimistic, yet realistic; aggressive, yet safe; ambitious, yet measured.
The truth is, we have a pretty good idea how competitive a student will be as an applicant at top colleges on quantitative assessment of grades and test scores and the qualitative assessment of other factors, but we have been surprised before. In almost every case, there is little a student can do via qualitative performance factors (e.g. activities, essays, etc.) to correct for low performance on the quantitative portions. In some cases, like fine arts and performance-focused majors, a student's ability can overshadow their track record, but this is generally not the case. For example, an engineering student with a low GPA despite high performance in an academic competition, even one with a strong reputation like Regeneron ISEF, is unlikely to impress top colleges enough through that achievement to get them to look past the GPA.
Be wary of consultants who offer a "quick fix"
As we have met with the majority of our high school students over the past two months, we have been surprised by how knowledgeable, driven, and focused they are. Most of them have general plans, and working with them to refine their plans has been very productive. There are a few trends, however, that are disconcerting. Sometimes, they have been given ideas about how best to prepare for the college application that are at odds with our experiences helping students. Here are a few notable examples of poor advice or red flags from external application consultants.
Preparing to take the SAT too early
- Our advice is that students should take the SAT in Grade 11 after extensive preparation.
- Taking the SAT early usually results in scores that are significantly lower than a student's eventual best score from G11 or early G12.
- There are colleges that will require students to submit all SAT scores. There is no erasing a bad SAT score in these circumstances.
- Students who try to take the SAT early will likely spend a great deal of time preparing, only to have their score fail to reach the target.
Spending too much time preparing for the ToEFL
- Speaking with G9 students lately, it has been shocking to hear how many of our students spend precious hours every weekend in ToEFL classes— especially considering ToEFL scores expire after two years!
- There is little that can be achieved in a ToEFL prep class that cannot be achieved in an immersive language environment. At BIPH, students are immersed in English for around 9-10 hours a day. Language acquisition cannot be crammed.
- My honest advice to you is, let your students relax, recharge, and prepare for the coming week each weekend. Unless a student is in G11, they should be doing homework, an activity, or relaxing on the weekends.
Putting too much stock in anything over the GPA
- Anytime someone tells you, "the GPA won't matter if...," it's almost certainly untrue.
- GPA is the most important factor in college admission. Some consultants make their living off providing a comforting second opinion to parents and students with low GPAs about their admission chances to selective universities.
- Beware consultants who just tell you what you want to hear to get you to sign with their company.
Strongly recommending an activity that their own company coordinates
- Some consultancy companies offer their own activities for students to do. It's better that students go through an independent, impartial organization for academic, service, and extracurricular activities.
College consulting quackery hurts students in the long run
As we have said in previous blog posts, most of the decisions that students and parents make in the leadup to the college application are decisions about time. Whenever there is a wide gulf between what an external consultant says about a student's chances of getting into a certain college and what we say, it's probably not a difference of opinion. It's more likely that, in order to get students to sign with their company, external consultants are being intentionally, and misleadingly, optimistic. In the end, a student may end up spending hours and hours and hours on a fruitless pursuit. We have no reason to mislead your students, because their participation in our college counseling programs is not contingent upon a contract, but rather a service provided by the school. Whenever the advice you receive seems too rosy to be true, it probably is. Ask yourself, what does a consultant have to gain?